Bosnia and Herzegovina is a country in south-eastern Europe whose post-war settlement, following the Bosnian war that ended 30 years ago, saw it divided into two autonomous "entities" under a weak central government. A foreign-appointed "High Representative"—currently Christian Schmidt, a German—retains extensive powers, should he choose to exercise them. More than a thousand troops from an EU-led force, mandated by the UN Security Council, are stationed in the country to help with security.
One entity is home mostly to Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and Croats. The other, the Republika Srpska (RS), is home mostly to Serbs. The RS capital is Banja Luka. The country lurches from crisis to crisis, but a constitutional showdown in 2025 looks exceptionally grave.
Milorad Dodik, who first came to power in 1998, was stripped of the RS presidency by the Central Election Commission on August 6th 2025 for flouting rulings by the High Representative. He refuses to accept the decision. The original dispute began after the RS passed legislation stating that Bosnia's Constitutional Court no longer had jurisdiction in its half of the country.
Mr Dodik, who is under American sanctions and backed by Russia and China, called a referendum for October 25th 2025 on whether RS citizens accept his removal. A new presidential election is set for November 23rd. Opposition parties in the RS are weak and divided; anyone who runs risks being branded a traitor. Analysts warn that Bosniaks and Croats who live in the RS could turn out to elect a candidate recognised by Western countries but not by most people in the RS—a scenario Mr Dodik says would create conditions for a "definitive referendum on independence".
"If you understand what you're doing, you're not learning anything."