Eritrea is a country on the Red Sea coast of the Horn of Africa. Its name derives from "Erythra Thalassa", ancient Greek for the Red Sea. Its capital is Asmara, known for its Italian colonial architecture—art-deco cinemas, ornate villas and grand colonnades built during the late 19th-century Italian colonial period. In 1935 Benito Mussolini used Eritrea as a base for invading Ethiopia; British troops expelled the fascist forces during the second world war.
After the war, one plan for Eritrea's future involved partition: the Muslim lowlands in the west would be annexed to Sudan, while the central Christian highlands would form a new state with Tigray, a region in northern Ethiopia to whose people Eritrean highlanders are close kin. Emperor Haile Selassie, however, was hostile to the idea of a "Greater Tigray" and coveted access to the Red Sea; he annexed Eritrea in 1962. A guerrilla insurgency led by Isaias Afwerki followed, and Eritrea won independence in 1993 after a three-decade armed struggle.
Isaias Afwerki has ruled as dictator since 1991. His system of indefinite military conscription has been compared by the UN to mass enslavement. Perhaps a third of the population has fled abroad, leaving empty villages, shuttered shops and derelict farms. Eritrea was once one of Africa's most industrialised parts; now even basic goods like soap or bottled water have to be imported.
A bloody border war between Eritrea and Ethiopia raged from 1998 to 2000. The Ethiopian army, then led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), trounced Eritrea but refrained from advancing to Asmara to topple the government. The humiliation left Isaias and many Eritreans with an enduring hatred for the TPLF.
When Abiy Ahmed went to war against the TPLF between 2020 and 2022, Isaias sent Eritrean troops into Tigray to fight on the Ethiopian government's side. They massacred civilians, raped women and looted widely. Since then, however, Isaias and the TPLF appear to have struck a tactical alliance against Abiy.
Abiy Ahmed has openly declared that he intends to gain control of one of Eritrea's Red Sea ports. On September 27th 2025 the Ethiopian army declared it would "pay any sacrifice" to win back the port of Assab. In July 2025 one of Abiy's circle called for the two countries to be joined in a "supranational union". Ethiopia has amassed missiles, fighter jets and drones. An invasion would be fiercely resisted: Eritrea would probably get support from Egypt, the Sudanese Armed Forces, and the TPLF. In 2024 Eritrea signed a security pact with Egypt; in 2025 it has been bolstering ties with Saudi Arabia.
Eritrea has been training units of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and allied Sudanese rebel groups. Sudanese aircraft have been spotted at the airport in Asmara, Eritrea's capital. If war erupts between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki and the TPLF would be able to count on at least some support from the SAF.
Tigrayan and Eritrean commanders have been in frequent contact for more than a year. At Zalambessa, a border town just inside Tigray, The Economist encountered an Eritrean checkpoint and saw Eritrean soldiers walking freely within sight of Tigrayan militias. Eritrean banknotes were in circulation at the local market.
The prospect of a "Greater Tigray"—uniting Tigray with Eritrea—has been revived. The violence Abiy unleashed in 2020 led many in Tigray to demand secession from Ethiopia. Some Tigrayans reckon that uniting with their Tigrinya-speaking cousins in Eritrea would boost an independent Tigray and give it access to the sea. Many Tigrayans have relatives in Eritrea. Isaias's own mother was of Tigrayan descent.
The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist is afraid this might be true.