Tarcísio de Freitas is the governor of São Paulo. He had been the front-runner for Brazil's 2026 presidential election on the right, but on September 29th 2025 he announced he would not run and would instead seek a second term as governor. He is 50. An engineer by training, he served as infrastructure minister in the Bolsonaro administration. He has portrayed himself as a moderate, courting financial bigwigs by privatising São Paulo's water company.
Mr Freitas unofficially kicked off his campaign in mid-2025 by denouncing the "dictatorship" of Brazil's Supreme Court and the "tyranny" of Justice Alexandre de Moraes. He affirmed he would pardon Bolsonaro in the "first hour" of his presidency. His withdrawal was triggered by Eduardo Bolsonaro's insistence on running for president himself, which split the right. Leaked text messages in which Eduardo told his father that Mr Freitas "has stood by with his arms crossed, watching you get screwed while he warms up for 2026" deepened the rift. His allegiance to Bolsonaro put him in an awkward position when Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil in July 2025: the tariffs disproportionately hurt beef, coffee and sugar exporters from São Paulo.
Mr Freitas has overseen a militarised campaign against drug gangs in poor communities in São Paulo. Under his mandate, police killings increased by 60% in 2024. After the deadliest police raid in Brazilian history in Rio de Janeiro on October 28th 2025, in which 121 people were killed, Mr Freitas flew to Rio to praise the state governor who ordered it. Iron-fist policing appeals to right-wing presidential candidates and, for now, most middle-class voters.
This is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday. And now you know why.