A policy approach that hands out assistance—typically cash—before or just as a natural disaster strikes, rather than after. Implementation requires early warning systems, a ready-to-disburse pot of money and a pre-compiled list of beneficiaries. The UN's World Food Programme (WFP), which launched the concept a decade ago, believes that by giving help when it is needed most, communities can recover better from shocks.
Researchers at the World Bank and the WFP compared families in flood-prone areas of Bangladesh and Nepal who received cash almost as soon as a flood began with those who received the same amount weeks later. The early recipients were less likely to go hungry, accumulate debt or be depressed; the effects were long-lasting. In Mongolia, families who received cash ahead of a dzud—a winter disaster in which steppe grass is frozen over with ice—were less likely to lose livestock. According to the WFP, every dollar spent before a disaster saves up to seven in avoided damage and future emergency responses.
Families who receive anticipatory transfers are also less likely to resort to costly adjustments such as selling assets or pulling children from school.
Improvements in satellite data and artificial intelligence are making disaster forecasts more accurate. Alphabet's Flood Hub uses machine-learning tools to analyse past hydrological and weather patterns to forecast floods in more than 80 countries. Better payment infrastructure, such as digital wallets like bKash in Bangladesh, has made it easier to disburse money instantly.
The Anticipation Hub, a global network that tracks efforts, identifies more than 100 projects in 45 countries, reaching 17m people. Few are run by governments; most are led by NGOs or UN agencies, limiting their scale. Many governments are reluctant to set aside money on the basis of forecasts. Even in Bangladesh, home to several pilot schemes, anticipatory action remains nascent.
Twenty Percent of Zero is Better than Nothing.