Jammu & Kashmir is a Muslim-majority region claimed in full but ruled in part by both India and Pakistan. The two countries have fought two wars, plus a more limited conflict, over Kashmir since their independence in 1947. Both have nuclear weapons. A 1960 river-sharing treaty and a 1972 agreement freezing the disputed border have governed their uneasy coexistence.
An anti-India insurgency began in 1989. Tens of thousands of people have been killed since then. India stations about half a million security forces in the region. In 2019 Narendra Modi revoked Kashmir's semi-autonomous status, splitting it into two federally administered territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh. That allowed tens of thousands of outsiders to get jobs and buy land in the region.
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is a Pakistan-based militant group with alleged headquarters near Muridke, 30km north of Lahore, and long-established ties to Pakistan's intelligence services. LeT was behind the attacks in Mumbai in 2008, in which nearly 170 people were killed. The Resistance Front (TRF) was founded in 2019 after Modi's government revoked Jammu & Kashmir's semi-autonomous status; his government declared it a terrorist group in 2023. Indian officials allege TRF is an LeT proxy.
In 2016 Modi sent troops to hit militant targets in Pakistani-administered Kashmir 11 days after an attack on an Indian military base. In 2019, after a suicide-bombing that killed 40 Indian policemen, India conducted air strikes on alleged militant sites in Pakistan 12 days later. Pakistan shot down an Indian jet and captured the pilot, returning him after a few days under American pressure. During that crisis, then-secretary of state Mike Pompeo mediated between the two sides after receiving conflicting claims from each that the other was preparing a nuclear strike.
On April 22nd 2025 at least 26 people were killed and 17 injured after gunmen opened fire on tourists in Pahalgam, the deadliest attack on tourists since the insurgency began in 1989 and the bloodiest in Kashmir since the 2019 bombing. The gunmen ensured that almost all their victims were Hindu, forcing them to give their names and testing whether they could recite Islamic verses before killing them. Police say the attackers included two Pakistanis and one Indian. The Resistance Front claimed responsibility, only to deny it later, saying it had been hacked. The attack may have been timed to coincide with the visit to India of J.D. Vance, America's vice-president.
On April 27th India's navy conducted long-range missile drills. India alleged cross-border involvement from Pakistan (without presenting public proof), suspended the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, closed the two countries' only land border crossing, and expelled several Pakistani diplomats including defence attachés. India and Pakistan exchanged fire over several nights. Pakistan denied any role. Its armed forces shot down an Indian spy drone and scrambled jets.
Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, described Kashmir as Pakistan's "jugular vein". Pakistani ministers warned that any attempt to divert waters flowing into Pakistan would be an "act of war", though India cannot greatly divert waters without new infrastructure that would take years to build.
Shortly after midnight on May 7th, two weeks after the Pahalgam attack, Indian missiles struck what India described as "terrorist infrastructure" at nine sites in Pakistani-administered Kashmir and in Punjab province. It was the largest aerial attack on Pakistan in more than 50 years. India said it fired the missiles and guided bombs from its own airspace—possibly to avoid repeating the 2019 experience of having a fighter shot down over Pakistan. Indian media reported the use of SCALP cruise missiles and Hammer smart-bombs from French-made Rafale jets.
India's decision to strike four targets in Punjab—Pakistan's most populous, politically and economically important province—was a significant escalation. One target in Muridke, 30km from Lahore, was the alleged training camp of Lashkar-e-Taiba. Another in Bahawalpur was the alleged headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammed, a jihadi group with ties to Pakistani intelligence.
India said the strikes were "focused, measured, and non-escalatory", targeting only "known terror camps" rather than military, economic or civilian sites, and provided footage showing precision hits on individual buildings. Pakistan said India had struck civilian areas and called the attack "an act of war". Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian fighter jets; India did not confirm this, but Indian and foreign media reported that three aircraft may have crashed in Indian territory and three Indian pilots were hospitalised.
After the strikes, both sides exchanged artillery and small-arms fire across the line of control. India said 13 people were killed on its side; Pakistan said 31 of its civilians were killed. Pakistan said it shot down 12 Indian drones on May 8th. India said it had "neutralised" an overnight missile and drone attack by Pakistan and responded by targeting Pakistani air-defence systems. Pakistan's defence minister, Khawaja Asif, said Pakistan would hit only Indian military targets and not civilians.
Donald Trump initially responded with insouciance, saying the two sides had been fighting for "centuries", before urging them to stand down: "They've gone tit-for-tat, so hopefully they can stop now." India briefed Marco Rubio, America's secretary of state, after the attacks, but America's appetite and ability to defuse the crisis appeared less clear than in previous episodes.
On May 10th Trump announced a ceasefire. American officials said they intervened after receiving alarming intelligence as fighting escalated on the night of May 9th. On May 10th Pakistani military officials circulated a notice announcing a meeting of the National Command Authority, which controls Pakistan's nuclear arsenal; Pakistan's defence minister later denied it. India saw it as another example of Pakistan—the weaker conventional power—resorting early to nuclear threats, as it did in stand-offs in 1990 and 1999.
India was frustrated by the ceasefire. Officials said they were blindsided by Trump's announcement, which prevented India from presenting it as coming at Pakistan's request. On May 12th Modi addressed the nation, saying India's four-day operation established a "new normal" in which terrorist attacks would be treated as acts of war. He said India had only paused its operation and would monitor Pakistan's actions. He made no mention of Trump's claim to have brokered the truce.
Trump offered on May 11th to help negotiate over Kashmir, despite India's longstanding objection to third-party involvement. India insisted any negotiations would cover only terrorism and the future of Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Pakistan welcomed the proposal for broader talks, including on Indian-ruled Kashmir, the suspended river-sharing treaty, and its allegations that India backs insurgencies on Pakistani soil.
A detailed paper by Christopher Clary of the University of Albany, published by the Stimson Centre in Washington, found that India appears to have hit all the targets it originally set out to destroy—an improvement on 2019, when it is believed to have missed. A "complex, innovative attack" with missiles on May 10th "appears largely to have overcome Pakistani air defences". By contrast, many or perhaps all Pakistani Fatah ballistic missiles fired that day either missed or were intercepted, judging by the lack of satellite images proving damage.
Pakistan downed several Indian jets on the first day of the conflict—probably five. Yet Pakistan also snatched a diplomatic victory: Trump's public embrace of Asim Munir and his claims to have ended the crisis angered India. During the ceasefire, Western governments were "hours away" from advising their citizens against travel to India, which would have panicked Indian businesses.
Indian officials believe Pakistan was "on the ropes" by May 10th and that Pakistan's inability to get its Fatah ballistic missiles through Indian defences showed its options were limited. Indian officials insist they have a good grasp of where the limits lie between conventional and nuclear war: "One thing we take as an important lesson is that there is space between conventional and nuclear. Plenty of margin to play with," said one senior official. The chasm between Indian and Pakistani perceptions of the skirmish suggests the next showdown could be more unpredictable.
Pakistani shelling killed nearly two dozen people in Indian-administered Kashmir during the fighting. Thousands of Kashmiris were displaced. Since the Pahalgam attack, security forces have pursued what Mohamad Yousuf Tarigami, a member of the J&K legislative assembly, called "collective punishment", including bulldozing homes of suspected militants' families. Police said they questioned or detained 2,800 Kashmiris within two weeks. Tourism, which had reached a record 3.5m visitors in 2024, is expected to plummet. Hopes of restoring Kashmir's statehood—which the Supreme Court ordered when it blessed the revocation of Article 370 in 2023—appear shelved.
Safety Third.