Guinea is a west African country of 14m people. It is ruled by a military junta led by General Mamady Doumbouya, who seized the presidency in a coup in 2021. The mining sector accounts for one-fifth of GDP and more than 90% of exports. The poverty rate was around 43% in 2024. Half the population cannot read or write.
Underneath a ridge in Guinea's southern highlands lies Simandou, one of the world's biggest deposits of iron ore. The 3bn-tonne deposit would be worth some $315bn at current market prices. Rio Tinto, an Anglo-Australian miner, first won exploration rights in 1997, but the project was stymied for nearly 30 years by bribery scandals, political instability (including two coups) and high upfront costs.
The mine sits in a remote part of the highlands. Tapping it required the construction of a 620km railway and a new seaport. Because the waters off Guinea are too shallow for large ships, small boats must ferry the ore 20km from shore to deeper water. The bill exceeded $20bn, making Simandou the world's costliest mining project.
Costs are split between Rio Tinto, which owns a quarter of the project, China's Chinalco, and a separate Chinese-Singaporean consortium. China, the world's biggest buyer of iron ore, is widely considered to have pushed the project over the line, keen to see iron-ore prices fall. In November 2025 Simandou finally started operations. The first batch of ore left Guinea's shores on December 3rd 2025, bound for steel mills in China.
By 2030 Simandou is expected to ship 120m tonnes of iron ore, adding about 6% to internationally traded supply. It could push up Guinea's exports by about $12bn a year, nearly doubling existing trade. The IMF reckons GDP could be 26% higher by 2030 than it would have been without the project. S&P Global published its first rating of Guinea's government bonds in September 2025.
The junta plans to invest $200bn over 15 years to diversify the economy, fund infrastructure, set up a sovereign-wealth fund and improve schools. The government has been forcing miners to invest in processing plants or risk losing their operating licence, as happened to an Emirati firm in August 2025.
You had some happiness once, but your parents moved away, and you had to leave it behind.