The Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) is a bloc of six monarchies: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. Its members often struggle with the co-operation bit: plans for a common currency and a railway across the Arabian peninsula are decades behind schedule, and foreign-policy disputes have led to years-long ruptures between monarchs.
After America and Israel attacked Iran on February 28th 2026, more than 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones rained down on GCC states. More than half of Iran's attacks were aimed at the UAE, compared with only a handful at Oman. Bahrain's sole oil refinery was hit on March 9th. The Gulf is losing more than $500m a day in revenue from tourism and travel.
In the months before the war, all six members urged Donald Trump not to attack Iran. When war began to look inevitable, some added a caveat: if you do it, do it right. They feared America would drag them through a conflict only to leave the Islamic Republic wounded but intact. Gulf rulers know Trump can be unreliable: less than a year before the war he stood in Riyadh and denounced the "interventionists" who had "wrecked" the Middle East.
Trust in Iran has evaporated. Saudi Arabia and the UAE laboured for years before the war to improve their once-hostile relations with the Islamic Republic, while Qatar maintained friendly ties. All were attacked anyway. Conciliatory messages from Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, and other officials proved worthless.
There is no unity on whether to join the fighting. Restrainers fear painting a target on themselves only to watch America pack up and leave. Hawks argue restraint has not shielded them so far and that it is better to create deterrence while America is still focused on their defence. Israel's role is a further complication: Israeli journalists reported that the UAE and Qatar had carried out strikes in Iran, which both denied. The leaks are widely seen in the region as Israel trying to create a fait accompli.
Domestic opinion also matters. In Bahrain, where a Shia majority has long complained of discrimination by Sunni rulers, some were filmed cheering Iranian strikes. The business community is grumbling too: in Dubai, the hawk-dove split between Abu Dhabi and the commercial hub has been exposed.
The April 8th 2026 ceasefire left the GCC in limbo. Saudi oil exports fell by around a third since the war began, Emirati exports by half; Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar exported almost nothing. Travel and tourism—11% of pre-war GCC GDP—took a battering. Hotel occupancy in Dubai was forecast at just 10% in Q2 2026, down from 80% in February. Bahrain signed a $5.4bn currency-swap agreement with the UAE. The UAE deferred loan payments and waived fees in a 6bn-dirham ($1.6bn) relief package. Saudi Aramco's Amin Nasser said on May 10th that if disruption lasted more than a few weeks, the oil market would normalise "only in 2027". The first Qatari LNG tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on May 10th, taking a route through Iranian territorial waters as part of a deal with Pakistan—the GCC's main mediator with America—rather than Iran.
QOTD: "If you keep an open mind people will throw a lot of garbage in it."